Why Ohio State's Undefeated Season May Come to a Halt

By Allie Dosmann on October 26, 2012

By the numbers:

Penn State is currently 5-2 and Ohio State 8-0.

Penn State is 13th in points against this season, giving up an average of 15.7 points per game. The only comparable defense Ohio State has come up against so far this year is Michigan State, ranked 11th in points per game, and Ohio State was held to a season low 17 points.

Penn State’s strong suit on defense is their ability to hold off the rush, ranked 21st and holding opponents to 113 yards per game. Ohio State excels in rush offense, ranked 10th and averaging 249.6 yards per game.

Penn State’s tends to rely more on their pass offense, averaging 257.1 points per game. This could exploit arguably Ohio State’s biggest weakness: pass defense. Ohio State is ranked 105th, giving up an average 271 yards per game.

From flikr, by Midwest4

By the momentum:

Penn State has two more losses than Ohio State thus far, but simply looking at Penn State’s record is an oversimplification. Since dropping the first two games of the season, Penn State has not allowed a team to come within 11 points. While Penn State is facing adversity this year, they seem to have begun to develop their own identity, defeating #24 Northwestern two weeks ago.

Ohio State went into overtime with Purdue last weekend, a team who decisively lost their previous two games to Wisconsin and Nebraska. Ohio State also allowed Indiana to score 49 points the week before, more than Indiana has ever come up with against Ohio State in the history of their match up. The last time Indiana scored even close to that many points was the last time the Hoosiers defeated the Buckeyes—in 1988. The Hoosiers are 2-5 this season and the Boilermakers 3-4.

Penn State defeated Ohio State 20-14 in their match up last season. Neither team achieved 100 yards in pass offense nor were they able to put up any points in the second half. Penn State went on to be 9-2 and Ohio State 6-5.

By the injuries:

Last weekend, Braxton Miller went out in a scary fashion against Purdue and was rushed to the hospital with what appeared to be a head injury. Later it was released that Miller had not suffered a concussion and was cleared for play. While this is absolutely good news for the Buckeyes this weekend, the message from the event is alarming. Miller is going to take hard hits and those hard hits could take him out of the game. Backup quarterback Kenny Guiton was able to carry Ohio State to a victory after Miller’s abrupt exit, but it cannot be forgotten that there is a reason he is the backup quarterback and Miller is the starter; Miller is who Ohio State wants in the game when things get close. When your most important player is getting banged up play after play, it would be unnatural for Buckeye fans to be comfortable.

As for other injuries, Buckeye running back Jordan Hall appears to be out for the season after reinjuring his knee during practice this week. Hall has not played since Ohio State’s win over Michigan State over three weeks ago but is still the Buckeyes third leading rusher. Defensive back Corey Brown is also questionable for the game. Brown had a career high four tackles against Purdue and occasionally plays on both sides of the ball.

No prominent players for Penn State have recently suffered injuries.

From flikr, by GregIke

By the intangibles:

Ohio State is only favored by one point, something that is rare for a top ten team taking on an unranked opponent. This is partially due to the fact that the game is in Happy Valley, Penn., a place that is typically not as friendly to its competitors as the title may suggest.

There’s a chance of rain in Pennsylvania on Saturday, which would work in favor of Ohio State, as wind and rain tend to be worse for a team with a predominant passing offense.

The coaching advantage goes to Ohio State, who is led by head coach Urban Meyer. Meyer has a history of college success at the University of Florida, including two BCS National Championships. This is Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien’s first year as a head coach, first year with Penn State and first year with college football since 2006.

Prediction:

This game will be a real challenge for both Penn State and Ohio State. My prediction:

20-19 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes seem to have more talent on their roster and a better coach to organize said talent. The roster has not played to their potential this season and this game will be no different. However, if Braxton Miller can keep from getting injured and Urban Meyer can keep the surprising plays coming, Ohio State has the potential to sneak by for one more week.

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